Identification of Gleissberg Cycles and a Rising Trend in a 315-Year-Long Series of Sunspot Numbers     

Jean-Louis Le Mouël  Fernand Lopes  Vincent Courtillot 《Solar physics》2017,292(3):43

We show in this short note that the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is able to clearly extract a strong, clean, and clear component from the longest available sunspot (International Sunspot Number, ISN) time series (1700?–?2015) that cannot be an artifact of the method and that can be safely identified as the Gleissberg cycle. This is not a small component, as it accounts for 13% of the total variance of the total original signal. Almost three and a half clear Gleissberg cycles are identified in the sunspot number series. Four extended solar minima (XSM) are determined by SSA, the latest around 2000 (Cycle 23/24 minimum). Several authors have argued in favor of a double-peaked structure for the Gleissberg cycle, with one peak between 55 and 59 years and another between 88 and 97 years. We find no evidence of the former: solar activity contains an important component that has undergone clear oscillations of \(\approx90\) years over the past three centuries, with some small but systematic longer-term evolution of “instantaneous” period and amplitude. Half of the variance of solar activity on these time scales can be satisfactorily reproduced as the sum of a monotonous multi-secular increase, a \(\approx90\)-year Gleissberg cycle, and a double-peaked (\(\approx10.0\) and 11.0 years) Schwabe cycle (the sum amounts to 46% of the total variance of the signal). The Gleissberg-cycle component definitely needs to be addressed when attempting to build dynamo models of solar activity. The first SSA component offers evidence of an increasing long-term trend in sunspot numbers, which is compatible with the existence of the modern grand maximum.  相似文献   

Geology and activity around volcanoes on Io from the analysis of NIMS spectral images     

Sylvain Douté  Rosaly Lopes  Robert Carlson  the Galileo NIMS Team 《Icarus》2004,169(1):175-196

The last two successful flybys of Io by Galileo in 2001 (orbits I31, I32) allowed the Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer to enrich its collection of IR spectral image cubes of the satellite. These data cover hemispheric portions of Io, several volcanic centers as well as their surroundings with a spatial resolution ranging from 2 to 93 km pixel⁻¹. They map thermal emission from the hot-spots and the distribution of solid SO₂ in the 1.0-4.7 μm spectral range. We obtain maps of SO₂ abundance and granularity from the NIMS data using the method of Douté et al. (2002, Icarus 158, 460-482). The maps are correlated to distinguish four different physical units that indicate zones of SO₂ condensation, metamorphism and sublimation. We relate these information with visible images from Galileo's Solid State Imaging System and with detailed mapping of the thermal emission produced by Io's surface. Our principal goal is to understand the mechanisms controlling how lava, pyroclastics and gas are emitted by different types of volcanoes and how these products evolve. The 800 km diameter white ring of fallout created by a violent “Pillanian” eruption during summer of 2001 is at least partly composed of solid SO₂ and has enriched preexisting regional deposits. Orange materials have been recently or are currently emplaced 240 km south from the main eruption site, possibly as sulfur flows. A similar event may have taken place in the past at Ababinili Patera (12.5° N, 142° W). Carefull study of SO₂ maps covering the Emakong region also suggests that sulfur forms the bright channel-fed flow emerging from the south eastern side of the caldera. Within the main caldera of Tvashtar Catena completely cooled patches of crust exist. Elsewhere, the caldera is still cooling from previous episodes of flooding. We confirm that Amirani emits constantly large amount of SO₂ gas by interaction of fresh lava with the volatiles of the underlying plains. Nevertheless SO₂ frost is not the major component of the bright white ring seen in the SSI images. Over the whole Gish Bar region, SO₂ frost seems barely stable and is constantly regenerated. The stability increases along gray filamentary structures which could be faults filled with materials having peculiar thermal properties. Northwest of Gish Bar Patera, a localized bright deposit shows an unusual spectral signature potentially indicative of H₂O molecules forming ice crystals or being trapped in a nonidentified matrix. The Chaac region may present a thickened old crust reducing the geothermal flux to levels lower than 0.5 W m⁻² and thus creating a cold trap for SO₂. Looking at the abundance and degree of metamorphose of SO₂, we establish the relative age of different flows and ejecta for the Sobo Fluctus. Finally the assumption that the white patches in visible images indicate SO₂ rich deposits is once again challenged. In the Camaxtli region we identify a topographically controlled compact white deposit showing only moderate SO₂ abundance. In contrast, we detect two spots of quite pure SO₂ ice on the gray flanks of Emakong. Furthermore, the close association of fumarolic SO₂ and red S₂ already noted for several volcanic centers is observed at Tupan.  相似文献   

On the Use of Random Material in Dam Cores: Case of the Manso Dam,Brazil     

Ferreira  Breno S.  Almeida  Marcio S. S.  Lopes  Francisco R.  Reis Cavalcanti  Maria do Carmo  Pires Filho  Celso José 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2022,40(4):1973-1987

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The Manso Dam, in the Brazilian State of Mato Grosso, intended for flood control and electricity generation, was built by a state-owned energy company in...  相似文献   

Improving a Two-Equation Turbulence Model for Canopy Flows Using Large-Eddy Simulation     

A.Silva Lopes  J. M. L. M. Palma  J. Viana Lopes 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,149(2):231-257

Large-eddy simulations of the neutrally-stratified flow over an extended homogeneous forest were used to calibrate a canopy model for the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RaNS) method with the $k-\varepsilon $ k - ε turbulence model. It was found that, when modelling the forest as a porous medium, the canopy drag dissipates the turbulent kinetic energy (acts as a sink term). The proposed model was then tested in more complex flows: a finite length forest and a forested hill. In the finite length forest, the destruction of the turbulent kinetic energy by the canopy was overestimated near the edge, for a length approximately twice the tree height. In the forested hill, the model was less accurate inside the recirculation zone and overestimated the turbulent kinetic energy, due to an incorrect prediction of the production term. Nevertheless, the canopy model presented here provided consistent results in both a priori and a posteriori tests and improved the accuracy of RaNS simulations with the $k-\varepsilon $ k - ε model.  相似文献   

Single close encounters in the planetary problem     

GP. Horedt 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1972,6(2):232-241

We consider a large massM and two small massesm ₁ andm ₂ (m ₁ m ₂;m ₁,m ₂M). The orbit ofm ₁ is initially circular and the motion ofm ₂ hyperbolic with respect toM. The orbital elements of the small masses are strongly modified after a close, single encounter betweenm ₁ andm ₂.An approximative method, similar to the theory of stellar encounters, is used to determine the probabilities of collisions, hyperbolas, direct and retrograde ellipses, as well as the mean values of the semimajor axes and their root mean square deviation after the encounter.The results are close to those which are obtained if the massm ₂ is negligibly small, (Mm ₁m ₂;m ₂ 0), as should be also expected on general grounds.  相似文献   

NoSOCS in SDSS – II. Mass calibration of low redshift galaxy clusters with optical and X-ray properties     

P. A. A. Lopes  R. R. de Carvalho  J. L. Kohl-Moreira  C. Jones 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,399(4):2201-2220

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Solar-stellar astrophysics and dark matter     

Sylvaine Turck-Chieze  Ilidio Lopes 《天体物理学报》2012,(8):1107-1138

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Dunes on Titan observed by Cassini Radar     

J. Radebaugh  R.D. Lorenz  S.D. Wall  E. Reffet  R.M. Lopes  L. Soderblom  M. Janssen  P. Callahan  the Cassini Radar Team 《Icarus》2008,194(2):690-703

Thousands of longitudinal dunes have recently been discovered by the Titan Radar Mapper on the surface of Titan. These are found mainly within ±30° of the equator in optically-, near-infrared-, and radar-dark regions, indicating a strong proportion of organics, and cover well over 5% of Titan's surface. Their longitudinal duneform, interactions with topography, and correlation with other aeolian forms indicate a single, dominant wind direction aligned with the dune axis plus lesser, off-axis or seasonally alternating winds. Global compilations of dune orientations reveal the mean wind direction is dominantly eastwards, with regional and local variations where winds are diverted around topographically high features, such as mountain blocks or broad landforms. Global winds may carry sediments from high latitude regions to equatorial regions, where relatively drier conditions prevail, and the particles are reworked into dunes, perhaps on timescales of thousands to tens of thousands of years. On Titan, adequate sediment supply, sufficient wind, and the absence of sediment carriage and trapping by fluids are the dominant factors in the presence of dunes.  相似文献   

Multiple Random Walk Simulation: A Fast Method to Map Grade Uncertainty with Large Datasets     

Rafael Moniz Caixeta  Diniz Tamantini Ribeiro  João Felipe Coimbra Leite Costa  Péricles Lopes Machado 《Natural Resources Research》2017,26(2):213-221

Multiple Random Walk Simulation consists of a methodology adapted to run fast simulations if close-spaced data are abundant (e.g., short-term mining models). Combining kriging with the simulation of random walks attempts to approximate traditional simulation algorithm results but at a computationally faster way when there is a large amount of conditioning samples. This paper presents this new algorithm illustrating the situations where the method can be used properly. A synthetic study case is presented in order to illustrate the Multiple Random Walk Simulation and to analyze the speed and goodness of its results against the ones from using Turning Bands Simulation and Sequential Gaussian Simulation.  相似文献   

The effects of suspended sediment on brown trout (Salmo trutta) feeding and respiration after macrophyte control     

MJC Greer  SK Crow  AS Hicks  GP Closs 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(2):278-285

Sediment resuspension during and after mechanical excavation of macrophytes may have a significant impact on resident fish populations. Unfortunately, little is known about the influence of this sediment on the respiratory performance and feeding abilities of fishes in New Zealand waterways. We examined the effects of suspended sediment (SS) concentrations previously observed after a large-scale macrophyte removal operation on oxygen consumption (MO₂) and feeding rates of brown trout (Salmo trutta). MO₂ at 0 mg L^?1, 150 mg L^?1, 300 mg L^?1, 450 mg L^?1 and 600 mg L^?1 of SS was measured using semi-closed respirometry. Feeding rates at the same SS concentrations were also measured using laboratory tank experiments. Results suggest that SS concentrations up to 600 mg L^?1 have no effect on MO₂. Conversely, feeding rates were significantly reduced at 450 mg L^?1 (22% reduction) and 600 mg L^?1 (31% reduction), indicating that sediment concentrations above 450 mg L^?1 may negatively affect brown trout populations.  相似文献